战略性新兴产业全要素生产率的测算及其收敛性分析

Evaluation and Convergence Analysis on Total Factor Productivity of Strategic and Emerging Industries

摘要:

战略性新兴产业是典型的技术密集型产业,因此有必要通过全要素生产率等指标来研究技术进步在其发展中发挥的作用。本文利用2000—2013年省级和行业面板数据以及索罗残差法,测算了其间我国战略性新兴产业全要素生产率的变化及其收敛性,并着重分析了战略性新兴产业发展规划推出以来的五年间影响战略性新兴产业生产效率的主要因素。研究结果显示我国战略性新兴产业全要素生产率有整体下降的发展趋势,但同时具有显著的收敛特征。而政府补贴、市场需求对生产效率的变化却起到了显著的负面影响。这说明我国产业政策亟需转变思路,做出调整,应重点培养产业核心竞争力。

Abstract:

Strategic and Emerging Industries are typical technology-intensive industries, so it is essential to research the role of technology change in their developments with the index of total factor productivity. Using provincial and industrial panel data during 2000 to 2013 and Solow residual method, the paper empirically measures the changes of TFP and its convergence. Specially, the paper analyses the main factors impacting Strategic and Emerging Industries’ productivity since the development plan was laid out 5 years ago. The result show: there exists a declining trend in total factor productivity of Strategic and Emerging Industries, but TFP is significantly converging. Meanwhile, the government subsidies and market demands is significantly raising negative impact on it. So it is urgent and essential to transfer our industrial policies to focus on industrial competitive power.