构建了一套适用于PPP项目的风险评价指标体系,设计了一种基于云模型的风险分担方案决策方法。采用视评价云厚度进行循环改进打分的方法,解决了传统方案决策方法中少数持正确观点专家意见被评价结论忽略的问题。绘制出各待评风险分担方案的评价云,逐一与标准云进行云相似性比较,择相似性最大者为最优方案。

This paper built a set of suitable for the PPP project risk index evaluation system, designed a risk allocation scheme decision making method risk based on cloud model. Use a cycle improvement rate method depending on the thickness of the cloud to solve the problem of raditional scheme comparison methods which in the result correct advices from minority experts could been ignored. Draw evaluation clouds of risk sharing schemes waiting for review then compare with the referen cloud, choose the one which has the largest similarity as the optimal solution.

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国家科技支撑计划项目“特大跨径钢箱梁悬索桥监控、管理关键技术研究”(2008BAG07B05); 国家自然科学出行主体的的相对危险暴露量理论及运用 (71271176); 中国工程院重点咨询项目 交通基础设施重大结构安全保障战略研究