我国创新驱动战略对科技人才发展的需求与趋势研究

Research on the needs and trends of technological talents with the China

摘要:

创新驱动战略的实现将需大量的科技人才支撑,文章构建了二元回归预测模型和GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对我国科技人才的需求进行了预测和验证,并通过组合预测模型加以修正,得出2013-2015年我国科技人才数量将会快速增长,增长率在6.72%-15.36%之间,并在2020年之际达到828.44万人年。由此建议加快产业转型升级、深化高等教育改革、加强人才制度改革、倡导生态经济,以改善人才的科研环境、培养环境、流动环境和生活环境,促进我国早日进入创新型国家之列。

Abstract:

Innovation-driven strategy will require a lot of technological talents support. Based on the related factors of influence of technological talents demand, this paper builds the binary regression forecast model and GM (1, 1) grey prediction model to predict and validate our country technological talents demand, and modify it by the combination forecast model. It is concluded that the number of China"s technological talents will be rapid growth from 2013 to 2015, the growth rate of between 6.72% and 14.5%, and growth rate improve constantly, then will reach 8.2844 million years in 2020. Thus proposed to speed up industrial restructuring and upgrading, deepening the reform of higher education and personnel system, advocating ecological economics, to improve the environment of human research, culture, mobility and living, which will promote China"s access to an innovative country as soon as possible.