后危机时代中美信息技术投资替代作用的结构特征——基于CES Copula 贝叶斯估计方法

Analyzing and distinguishing the inputs substitution of Information technology, Capital and Labor in China and U.S. during the post-crisis era: a CES-based Copula Bayesian approach

摘要:

技术进步是当今经济增长的主要推动力,信息技术投资亦是各个国家提高经济效率的主要手段和投资方向。本文旨在分析信息技术对传统资本、劳动力的交互作用是否会随着投资强度和发展阶段而改变,通过Copula贝叶斯估计法,利用经验数据对比,分析我国与美国在信息技术,资本、劳动力投资交互作用的结构性特征,经过对比发现,我国信息技术对我国资本、劳动力的替代效应明显弱于美国,且呈现中心区域增强的替代作用。信息技术投资替代性的结构性差异值得我们深入研究,以免过高或低的估计信息技术价值,对于国家层次的信息技术投资决策具有重要作用。

Abstract:

More and more wealth have been spent on information technology (IT) investment over the last two decades, nevertheless the investment of IT to organizational performance also became an extremely important but highly controversial issue. Packed with the computation approach of Copula Bayesian estimation as the methodology and equipped with the constant elasticity of substitution production function as the theoretical foundation, this study attempts to examine the inputs complement and substitution relations among ordinary capital, ordinary labor, and IT capital in conjunction with the value of IT. The Copula Bayesian method is proposed in IT issue and fitted into a panel data set, using the analysis of correlation structure. The major findings include: the so-called productivity paradox is found to appear in both developed and developing country; IT investment has substantial impacts associated with the CES production function; and capital, labor, and IT capital at country level display a strong substitution rather than complement relationship. The structural differentiation of substitution is figured, using Copula Bayesian estimation, which has the strengthened central area in China. These phenomena have important implications for investment decisions at country level and the ignorance of these relationships means to over- or under- state the real value of IT and that the substitution structure among non-IT capital, ordinary labor, and IT capital is a technological and complex matter and must be seriously taken into account while assessing the impacts of IT at country level.