当前社会实现可持续发展所面临的关键问题是生态安全问题,而生态安全研究的重点是生态安全预警。针对山东半岛蓝色经济区生态环境特点,从生态安全预警角度,利用熵权和可拓学理论,建立基于S-T-R模型的山东半岛蓝色经济区生态安全预警指标体系,通过预警指标阈值的确定,定量化分析该区域生态安全状况。运用该模型对山东半岛蓝色经济区历史时序(2003~2013年)及规划年份(2016年)的生态安全进行定量评估和预警。研究结果表明：2003~2013年山东半岛蓝色经济区生态安全状况呈现出逐渐好转趋势,但生态安全整体水平处于“安全”状态以下。2016年经济区生态安全为“无警状态”,同时有向“轻警状态”发展的趋势,能源消耗、水资源短缺、工业“三废”等是影响山东半岛蓝色经济区生态安全进一步好转的主要因素。

Ecological security is the key problem of sustainable development. The focus of ecological security research is how to construct the early-warning system. In this paper, according to the characteristics of the ecological environment of Shandong peninsula blue economic zone, from the perspective of ecological security early warning, the ecological security index system of Shandong peninsula blue economic zone was built based on the entropy-weighted extension matter-element theory and S-T-R model, the status of the regional ecological security was studied quantitatively by determining the early-warning index threshold. The model was employed to quantitatively assess and dynamically early-warning the ecological security of Shandong peninsula blue economic zone during the historical years (2003~2013) and the year of planning (2016). The results showed that: from 2003 to 2013, the overall status of ecological security was undergoing increasing improvement, but all safety states were less than the general requirement of “safe”. In 2016, the ecological security level of economic zone will be “non alarm” state and has the tendency of developing to "light alarm In addition, the main bottleneck factors of ecological security in Shandong peninsula blue economic zone are energy consumption, water resource shortage and industrial "three wastes" etc.

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国家自然科学“区域复合生态经济系统耦合效应与政策调控研究——以黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为例”(编号：71371112)；山东省自然科学“山东半岛蓝色经济区环境经济复合系统仿真与预警机制研究”(编号：ZR2012GM020)