碳汇杠杆效应下有效经济增长与碳排放关系研究——基于成本性态分析视角

Analysis of Effective Economic Growth and Carbon Emission under the Effect of Carbon Sink Leverage——based on analysis of cost behavior

摘要:

本文基于成本性态分析视角将碳排放影响因素分为变动影响因素和固定影响因素,并对碳排放指标进行分解。运用改进Tapio模型和连环替代法,对有效经济增长与净碳排放的关系以及碳汇的杠杆效应进行研究。研究发现,2003-2004年有效经济增长与净碳排放呈扩张性负脱钩,2005-2006年以及2011年呈增长连结,其他期间呈弱脱钩。从静态角度分析发现,有效经济增长与净碳排放的脱钩主要在于能源消费的脱钩；节能和减排在净碳排放脱钩动态演变中发挥双重主导作用；同时,碳汇杠杆效应可以防止出现经济发展和碳排放提前脱钩的表象。

Abstract:

Based on the cost behavior analysis, this paper divided influence factors of carbon emissions into variable factors and fixed factors, and decomposed carbon emission indexes. This paper conducted a research on the decoupling relationship between effective economic growth and net carbon emission and the effect of carbon sink leverage by using improved Tapio model and method of concatenated substitution. Results show that the decoupling relationship between effective economic growth and net carbon emission belongs to dilated negative decoupling from 2003 to 2004, growth connection during the period 2005-2006 and 2011, and weak decoupling in the other periods. From the perspective of static state, we find that the decoupling relationship between effective economic growth and net carbon emissions is mainly due to decoupling of energy consumption. And energy-saving and emission reduction play dual leading roles in the dynamic evolution of decoupling of net carbon emissions. In addition, the effect of carbon sink leverage can prevent the superficial phenomenon that economic development and carbon emissions decouple in advance.