区域视角的能源消费碳排放影响机理分析,是有效实现节能降耗减排的重要研究议题。本文以指数分解分析的研究框架为基础,采用LMDI的完全分解模型,解析1990-2013年5个不同发展时期广东省能源消费碳排放的主要驱动因素。主要的研究结论如下：(1)经济增长效应和人口规模效应是广东碳排放增长的最主要贡献因子。(2)能源强度效应是遏制碳排放增长的重要贡献因子。(3)能源结构效应和技术进步效应在不同发展阶段对广东省碳排放增长的作用机制各不相同,未有充分发挥其遏制碳排放增长的重要作用。

Regional carbon emissions research is necessary and helpful for China to achieve the reduction targets. Aims of this case study are to analyze the energy-related carbon emissions and to find out the most important contributors to the increased carbon emissions in Guangdong province. LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index) technique has been conducted to uncover the main five driving forces for energy-related carbon emissions. Decomposition results show that affluence effect and population effect are two most important contributors to the increased carbon emissions. Energy intensity effect played the dominant role in curbing carbon emissions. Energy structure effect and technical progress effect played different but relatively minor effects on carbon emissions during the five different development stages.

国家自然科学基金青年基金(41501144)；广东省科学院青年科学研究基金(qnjj201501)；广州地理所优秀青年创新人才基金(030)。通讯作者：王长建(1986-),男,河南南阳人,博士,助理研究员,中国地理学会会员(S110010114M),主要从事生态经济与区域可持续发展研究。E-mail: wwwangcj@126.com ,张虹鸥,叶玉瑶,苏泳娴