演化经济学视角下的技术范式转换预见探讨

Research of technology paradigm transformation foresight based on Evolutionary Economics

摘要:

技术范式转换导致的行业领导者的溃败现象频繁出现,对技术范式转换的有效预见已成为关乎企业生死存亡的头等大事。已有的技术预见方法尚难以解决包含高不确定性和复杂性的技术范式转换问题。演化经济学则从生物进化论的视角出发,借鉴复杂系统的处理方法,为我们提供了一个解释技术范式转化的合理框架。本文便试图在深入剖析相关理论的基础上,从演化经济学视角解释技术范式的转换机理,同时得出对后续研究的启示和展望,以期找到技术范式转换预警的有效途径。

Abstract:

The defeat of industry leaders casued by technology paradigm transformation occurs frequently. The efficient forecast for technology paradigm transformation has already become a major concern about the enterprise survival. It’s difficult for the present technology forecasting methods to forecast the transformation of technology paradigm which is of high uncertainty and complexity. Evolutionary economics, which is based on evolutionary biology and uses analysis tools of uncertain and complex system,offers us a sensible framework to explain the transformation of technology paradigm. This article will try to analyze the relevant theories and explain the technology paradigm transformation from the perspective of evolutionary economics. At the same time, we will draw enlightenment and prospects for follow-up research, attempt to find an efficient way to forecast technology paradigm transformation.