kaya方法的云南碳排放因素分析

Analysis Yunnan carbon emission factors Based on Kaya Identity

摘要:

利用kaya恒等式和LMDI因式分解方法对云南省1986—2015年的相关数据进行分析，以探求影响云南省碳排放和云南省能源强度的相关因素。研究结果表明：云南省碳排放总量以及人均碳排放呈波动上升趋势，GDP能耗呈稳步下降趋势；在影响碳排放的经济效应、强度效应、结构效应、人口效应等4个因素中，强度效应是抑制碳排放增长的主要因素，而经济效应则是促进碳排放增长的因素；对能源强度进一步分解分析后发现，第二产业能耗强度的下降是降低能源强度对碳排放增长的主要方式。在此基础上，提出包括改变经济增长及发展方式、提高能源利用效率以及发展新能源和再生资源的建议。

Abstract:

This paper, using Kaya identities and LMDI factorization method, based on relevant data of Yunnan from 1986-2015, carries out the research on the relevant factors affecting carbon emissions and energy intensity. The results show: Total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions are fluctuating in an upward trend, but the level of GDP energy consumption shows a steady downward trend; In the four influential factors (energy consumption intensity, economy growth, population effects and energy consumption structure effects), the energy consumption intensity is disincentive, and the economy growth is a contributing factor; Further decomposition on the energy consumption intensity found that decreasing the energy intensity of the secondary industry is the main way for reducing the energy intensity of carbon emission contribution. Finally, on the basis of the analysis, the paper proposes three suggestions such as changing the method of economic growth and development, improving energy efficiency, and developing new energy renewable resources.