中国智能型服务业发展影响因素研究——基于省际面板数据的实证

A study on the influential factors of the development of intelligent service industry in China -- An Empirical Study Based on the provincial panel data

摘要:

本文通过收集全国30个省市的面板数据，研究我国东中西部信息通讯技术制造业的发展变化趋势，通过因子和聚类分析将我国30个省市的智能型服务业发展状况分为四类。本文借助工具变量进行回归发现早期智能型服务业的发展主要靠信息基础设施投资的拉动，而近些年主要是由于中国经济结构的优化改善促成的。从地域上看，各地的信息通讯设施投资确实为当地智能型服务业的发展搭建了基础平台，东部地区智能型服务业的发展更多由市场力量的推动，而中西部地区却主要依赖政府扶持的发展，另外GDP增长率水平、人口基数、经济结构、制度因素和信贷支持也是促进智能型服务业发展的重要因素。

关键词:智能型服务业;信息通讯技术（ICT）;资本存量;工具变量（IV）

Abstract:

Through the collection of 31 provinces and cities of the nationwide panel data, this paper analyzes the development trends of China's eastern, central and western information communication manufacturing industry, By the factor and cluster analysis of 31 provinces and cities, the development of intelligent service industry is divided into four categories. In this paper, with the aid of instrumental variable regression the article found that early development of intelligent services were mainly driven by the information infrastructure investment, and in recent years it contributed to China's economic structure optimization and improvement. From geographical point of view, information and communication facilities around the investment does build a basic platform for the development of local intelligent services. The development of intelligent service industry in the eastern region is more driven by market forces, while the Midwest region is mainly dependent on the development of government support. In addition per capita GDP level, population base, economic structure, institutional and credit factors are also important factors to promote the development of intelligent services.

Key words:Intelligent service industry; Information communication technology (ICT);Capital stock;Instrumental variable (IV)