生物制药作为一种高技术含量的知识密集型产业,专利申请对于新药研发显得尤为重要。从投入产出网络分析方法出发,测算出生物制药技术的9个主要专利技术群的技术感应力系数和技术影响力系数,以此来识别核心技术和前沿技术。然后运用动态投入产出模型,对各个技术群专利量的演化趋势进行预测。结果表明,IPC为C12N(微生物或酶；其组合物；繁殖,保藏或维持微生物；变异或遗传工程；培养基)的技术群是生物制药技术网络中的前沿技术群和核心技术群,并预测出该技术群的专利量在未来几年的演化趋势。

The biopharmaceutical industry is a component of hi-tech industry, and patent applications is particularly important for R D of new drugs. To identify its frontier technology and core technology, this paper constructed input-output network analysis method of bio-pharmaceuticals technology network, and established recognition model for frontier technology and core technology. Then we forecasted the trend of the number of patents by constructing dynamic input-output model. The results show that the technology group of IPC C12N (Microbes or enzymes; The combination; Breeding, preservation or maintain microorganisms; Mutation or genetic engineering; medium) is the core and frontier technology of the Bio-pharmaceuticals technology, and the trend of the patent number of IPC C12N will maintain steady for the next five years.

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国家自然科学“基于DSGE模型的新能源汽车产业协同创新体系研究”(71540006)