中国制造业创新驱动的重大背离现象分析

Significant Deviation Analysis of China’s Manufacturing Industry Innovation-driven

摘要:

本文通过构建基于离差最大化的制造业科技创新能力综合评价体系对中国制造业探讨分析,发现制造业科技创新能力总体得到了不断提高,但是技术创新投入产出系数却呈现出波动下降的不良趋势,技术创新投入产出能力与科技创新综合能力出现了明显的背离。依据灰色系统理论,采用动态GM(1,1)模型对2015-2017年中国制造业科技创新能力进行预测分析,结果显示技术创新投入产出能力依旧与科技创新综合能力相背离。中国在发展制造业的同时,也应关注技术创新投入产出系数,努力提高科技创新的产出效益。

关键词:中国制造业;科技创新;背离;预测分析

Abstract:

BySconstructingSbased onSmaximizingSdeviationsStoScomprehensiveSevaluation of the scientific and technologicalSinnovationScapacitySofSChina’sSmanufacturing industry, this paper finds thatSSability ofSmanufacturingSscientific and technological innovation areSrising as a whole. ButSthere are fluctuations in technological innovation input-output coefficients,Swhich overall shows a declining trend. There is a significant deviation between the technological innovation input-output capacity and the comprehensive ability of science and technology innovation. Based on the grey system theory, the paper uses dynamic GM (1, 1) model to prediction of the scientific and technological innovation capacity of China’s manufacturing in 2015-2017. The results show that the technical innovation input-output capacity and the comprehensive ability of science and technology innovation still diverge. While in the development of manufacturing in China, technological innovation input and output coefficient also should be paid attention. Strive to improve the output efficiency of science and technology.

Key words:Chinese Manufacturing Industry; Technological innovation; Deviation; Prediction Analysis