基于风险地图方法的特高压工程大规模建设潜在风险评价及防控

Potential Risk Assessment and Prevention of Large-scale UHV Construction Projects Based on Risk Map Methods

摘要:

随着我国输电技术的成熟，特高压输电技术在优化能源资源配置、大气污染防治、实现人类可持续发展方面展现了独特优势，特高压电网在我国的工程实践已经进入快速、规模化发展的新阶段。目前国家电网公司已经建成投运“三交四直”特高压工程，在建“四交五直”特高压工程（包括纳入大气污染防治计划的“四交四直”工程），工程建设实践从早期的一条线发展到多条线同步建设的新阶段。大规模建设背景下，对关键资源和关键管理流程带来巨大挑战。本文从关键管理流程出发，基于风险地图方法，在研究识别关键流程风险的基础上，开展了风险量化评价，并基于风险评价结果采用研究构建的“管理三要素”框架提出了风险防控措施建议。通过量化评价进一步明确了特高压电网大规模建设过程中需要高度关注的重点风险，为未来加强风险防控、确保大规模建设目标的实现指明了方向。

Abstract:

As China's power transmission technology matures, UHV transmission technology has shown the unique advantages in optimizing energy resources, air pollution controlling, and achieving sustainable human development. So UHV grid engineering practice has entered a rapid, large-scale development of new stage in our country. At present, State Grid Company of China (SGCC) has built and put into operation "three AC four DC" UHV projects, and they are constructing “four AC five DC" UHV projects (including "four AC four DC" projects which are involved in national air pollution control program), and the construction practice developed from earlier one line to a new stage of simultaneous construction of multiple lines. Under the background of large-scale construction, there are huge challenges for key resources and critical management processes. In this paper, starting from the key management processes, based on the risk map approach, on the basis of identifying the key processes risk, we carried out quantitative assessment of the risks. We proposed risk control measurements based on the "three elements of management" framework we formulated and the results of risk assessment. Through quantitative evaluation of risk, we clarified the attention focus of large-scale UHV grid construction, and it pointed out the direction for the future to strengthen risk prevention and control, to ensure the goal of large-scale construction.