进度视角下地铁项目施工安全风险的系统动力学分析

System Dynamics Analysis of Security Risk of Subway Construction on the Perspective of Schedule

摘要:

在分析地铁施工安全风险影响因素的基础上,从进度的视角构建了地铁项目施工安全风险的系统动力学模型,并收集数据进行模型仿真。通过调整影响进度压力的三个关键变量——期望劳动力、工作强度和加班时间的权重赋值来进行政策模拟。结果表明：增加劳动力是降低系统安全和进度风险水平最有效的方式；增加工作强度的方式不可作为首要策略；在不同的系统目标优先度下,管理者对这三个变量应给予差异化的管理排序。

Abstract:

Based on the risk factors, the system dynamics model of safety risk of subway construction is established on the perspective of schedule. Data is collected for simulation model. For the sake of policy simulation, the weights of three critical variables are regulated, while the variables are key factors of releasing the schedule pressure. The variables are expected labor, working strength and overtime hours. The results show that increasing labor force is the most effective way of reducing system security and schedule risk, while the way of increasing working strength should not be the first one. And under different priorities of system goal, the managers should take different attention to the three variables.