中国碳排放强度两阶段分解

The two-stage decomposition of carbon emission intensity in China

摘要:

随着全球气候问题日益严峻,中国作为碳排放大国,所承担的节能减排任务更重。本文采用LMDI分解方法对我国碳排放强度进行两阶段因素分解,第一阶段对碳排放强度进行LMDI分解,分解结果表明能源强度和能源结构是影响碳排放强度变化的主要因素,其中能源强度对碳排放强度的贡献率超过90%,而能源结构的影响相对较小。第二阶段进一步对影响碳排放强度变化的主要因素能源强度进行LMDI分解,分解结果表明能源效率和产业结构对能源强度变化有显著影响。最后利用协整分析方法对上述分解变量进行长期协整关系验证,结果表明碳强度、能源结构、能源效率和产业结构存在长期均衡稳定关系。针对研究结果,提出了优化产业结构、促进技术进步等节能减排建议。

关键词:碳排放强度;LMDI;两阶段;协整检验

Abstract:

With the rapid development of global economy, environmental problems have become more and more prominent. In 2007, China’s CO2 carbon emission has surpassed the United States and become the world’s largest CO2 emitter. Hence in the global energy saving and emission reduction targets,China has more energy saving and emission reduction task than other countries. This paper utilized two-stage LMDI decomposition to decompose China’s carbon emission intensity. In the first stage, LMDI model was applied to decompose carbon emission intensity. Decomposition result shows that the reduction of carbon emission intensity in China is mainly influenced by energy intensity and energy structure. Energy intensity contributed more than 90% on changes of carbon emission intensity, while the impact of energy structure is relatively small. In the second stage LMDI decomposition of energy intensity was conducted, which is the main factor influencing changes of carbon emission intensity. Decomposition result shows that the reduction of energy intensity in China mainly resulted from industrial structure and energy efficiency during 1991-2011. Finally,Johansen Co-integration test was employed to test the long-term co-integration relationship between variables. The result suggests that there has been a long-term equilibrium and stable relationship among carbon emission intensity and energy structure, technological progress, industrial structure. Based on the above analysis, three suggestions for energy saving and emission reduction are provided.

Key words:Carbon intensity; LMDI; Two-stage; Co-integration test