基于采纳者决策机制的竞争性创新扩散的阈值模型构建及仿真研究

Threshold Model Building and Simulation Analysis of Competitive Innovation Diffusion Based on The Decision Making Mechanism of Adopters

摘要:

在对采纳者决策机制分析的基础上，构建竞争性条件下的创新扩散的阈值模型，基于特定的复杂网络拓扑结构，对进入时间、创新质量与竞争性创新扩散之间的影响关系以及网络结构在其中的调节效应进行仿真分析，仿真结果表明：进入时间与创新质量对竞争性创新的扩散深度及扩散总量都具有显著的影响，但影响方向及影响趋势具有较大的差异性，网络结构的调节效应的发挥会受到进入时间与创新质量的反馈影响，从而表现出复杂的阶段性及渐进性变动规律。研究结果进一步丰富和完善了创新扩散的相关理论，对创新推广策略的制定具有一定的指导意义。

Abstract:

Based on the analysis of the adopters decision making mechanism, this paper builds the threshold model of innovation diffusion under the competitive conditions, and make a simulation analysis of the relationship between enter-time，innovation quality and competitive innovation diffusion and the regulating effects of network structure. The simulation analysis shown that the enter-time and innovation quality have a significant impact on the total amount and depth of competitive innovation diffusion, but the impact direction and trend have great difference, dufeedback of enter-time and innovation qualitye, the regulating effects of network structure shows complex periodic and progressive features. The results further enrich and perfect the related theory of diffusion of innovation, and has a positive guiding significance for the innovation marketing strategy formulation.