制造业能源消费结构演变、产业贡献度对国际竞争力的影响研究

Research on the Influence of Manufacturing Energy Consumption Structure Evolution and Industry Contribution to the International Competitiveness

摘要:

“再工业化”与“工业4.0”背景下,“中国制造2025”吸引了全球目光,中国制造业国际竞争力提升迫在眉睫。本文在透析1997-2012年制造业能源消费结构演变、产业贡献度和国际竞争力基本变化特征的基础上,利用协整分析、误差修正模型及Granger因果关系检验,研究制造业国际竞争力与能源消费量、产业贡献度之间的时序均衡与短期动态关系。结果显示,制造业能源消费结构中煤炭能源消费量与制造业国际竞争力存有长期动态均衡关系,且煤炭消费量亦是制造业国际竞争力的单向Granger原因,而电力能源消费量、产业贡献度与制造业国际竞争力之间均不存有长期均衡关系,印证了中国制造业长期发展过程中以煤炭消耗为主的能源消费结构的不均衡性,以及当前加快劳动密集型向附加价值更高的知识密集型和技术密集型产业转变步伐的迫切性。

Abstract:

"Made in China 2025" has attracted world attention under the background of "Industrialization" and "Industry 4.0", so China's manufacturing industry international competitiveness needs to be further promoted. The manufacturing energy consumption structure evolution, industry contribution and international competitiveness were analyzed from 1997 to 2012. Sequential equilibrium and short-term dynamic relationship between these variables were also studied by co-integration analysis and error correction model and Granger causality test. The results showed that there was a long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship between coal consumption and manufacturing industry international competitiveness and coal consumption was a one-way Granger cause of manufacturing industry international competitiveness. Moreover, there was no long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship between electric energy consumption, industry contribution and international competitiveness. So the imbalance of the Chinese manufacturing energy consumption structure was confirmed in the process of long-term development with the characteristics of coal was main energy to be consumed. Therefore, manufacturing industry transformation is imminent from traditional labor-intensive to knowledge-intensive and technology-intensive industries because they have higher added value.