基于贝叶斯理论的企业新产品开发风险决策GERT网络模型

A GERT network model about enterprise new product development risk decisions based on Bayesian theory

摘要:

构建了以企业新产品开发基本过程为基础的GERT网络模型,度量了于研发过程实施针对性管控措施前后新产品开发成功概率；结合贝叶斯决策理论建立评估产品收益的数学模型,计算企业购买情报前后新产品的期望收益,测度完全情报价值和购买情报的净收益。研究结果揭示了新产品开发成本、成功率和市场需求量等因素的相互作用,并为企业新产品开发于不同情境和因素下的决策提供依据。

关键词:风险决策;新产品开发;贝叶斯决策理论;GERT网络

Abstract:

The GERT network model is constructed based on the basic process of new product development, and measured the probability of success of new product development before and after the implementation of specific control measures in the development process; a mathematical model is established to evaluate the yield of the product, which is to calculate the expected return of the new product, and measure the total information value and the net income of the purchase. The research results reveal the interaction between the new product development cost, success rate and market demand and other factors, and provide the basis for the new product development in different situations and factors.

Key words:risk decision; new product development; Bayesian decision theory; GERT network