在2009年哥本哈根世界气候大会上,中国承诺于2020年实现碳强度较2005年减少40%-45%,本文基于产业结构调整的视角,展望中国在保持持续经济增长约束条件下实现这一目标的可能性。为此,本文主要做了以下几项工作：首先,使用成分数据模型和ARIMA模型预测2020年我国的产业结构情况,据此设定产业结构调整的两种情景；其次,通过单位根协整检验定量分析了碳排放与第二产业和第三产业的内在作用关系,并在不同的经济发展情景下分别预测2020年的碳排放情况；最后,计算得到2020年中国在8种情景模式下的碳强度情况,并进一步分析产业结构调整对实现碳强度目标的贡献水平,推测在不同产业结构和经济增长情景下在2020年实现碳强度目标的可能性。最后,本文提出相应的产业结构低碳化的政策建议,以期早日实现这一国家发展目标。

In the 2009 Copenhagen World Climate Conference, China committed to reducing carbon intensity by 40% -45% in 2020 compared to 2005. Based on industrial restructuring perspective, this paper prospects the possibility of China to achieve this goal while maintaining sustained economic growth constraints. To this end, this paper has done the following work: First of all, this paper uses the component data model and ARIMA model to forecast the industrial structure in China in 2020,and then set two scenarios of industrial restructuring. Secondly, by means of unit root cointegration test, the relationship between carbon emissions, second industry and the third industry is quantitatively analyzed, and the carbon emissions in 2020 are predicted respectively under different economic development scenarios. At last, the paper calculates carbon intensity by 2020 in eight scenarios, and analyse the contribution of industrial structure adjustment to the carbon intensity target , then Further speculates on the possibility of achieving carbon intensity targets in different industrial structure and economic growth scenarios in 2020.

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国家自然科学基金资助项目“基于生态系统健康的流域可持续管理能力评价研究”(71373109)；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“张掖市城镇化发展与水资源系统的动态耦合研究”(15LZUJBWYJ011)