新能源汽车关键零部件动力电池供应风险识别与评估研究

Study on Supply Risk Identification and Assesement of the Critical Power Batteries in NEVs

摘要:

新能源汽车产销迅猛增长导致合格动力电池出现严峻的供应风险。运用政策法，将动力电池界定为新能源汽车关键零部件中最关键的部分，并将其定位为Kraljic矩阵中具有高供应风险的战略项目。研究发现:以磷酸铁锂和三元材料锂电池为代表的锂离子电池是当前动力电池的主流，其供应短缺风险突出，包括供应总量短缺及供应结构性短缺。建立了单一车型风险评估模型，并在考虑废旧电池回收利用参数的情况下建立了企业级综合风险评估模型。

Abstract:

In recent years, China's new energy vehicle (NEV) production and sales have been growing rapidly, leading to a serious supply risk of qualified power batteries.Using the policy law, the paper defines power battery as the most critical part of the NEV key parts and considers it as a strategic item with high supply risk in the Kraljic Matrix. It finds by research that lithium-ion battery is the mainstream of China’s current NEV battery, mainly represented by lithiumion phosphate and ternary lithium-ion batteries. Their risks of shortage of supply are pro-minent, including the total and structural supply shortage. The paper establishs a risk assessment model for single vehicle models,and then develops a comprehensive risk assessment model for enterprises with taking the parameter of waste battery recycling into account.