科技脆弱性内涵、评价与调控——基于山东省的实证研究

Science and Technology Vulnerability’s Connotation, Evaluation and Regulation: Based on the Empirical Research in Shandong Province

摘要:

把脆弱性研究范式引入科技评价领域，在分析科技脆弱性内涵基础上，从敏感性和恢复性两方面建立指标体系，运用函数模型法对2000-2014年山东省科技脆弱性进行综合评价，得到如下结论：敏感性保持在较低水平且变化趋势不明显；恢复性总体呈现持续上升趋势；脆弱性经历了一个“先上升、再下降、后上升”的演变过程，以“降低”为主导趋势，科技系统遭受的不利影响和损害可能性较低。根据科技系统自身特点，从降低科技敏感性和提高科技恢复性两方面提出调控措施。

关键词:科技脆弱性;科技评价;脆弱性调控;山东省

Abstract:

Vulnerability research paradigm is applied to science and technology evaluation field, science and technology vulnerability’s connotation is analyze based on vulnerability’s connotation, evaluation indicator system is built from sensibility and recoverability, Shandong province science and technology vulnerability in 2000-2014 is evaluated, The results show that: ① Sensibility index kept at a lower level and the change trend was not pronounced. ② Recoverability index presented a increasing trend. ③ Vulnerability index experienced an evolution process of “rise, decline and rise” and the major trend was decline, it explained science and technology’s negative influence and damage probability was low. The regulation measures were put forward from reduce science and technology vulnerability and science and technology restorative.

Key words:Science and technology vulnerability; Science and technology evaluation; Vulnerability regulation; Shandong province