本文以Baumol的绝对β-收敛模型为基础,在计算了以8个代表性指标合成的综合科教水平的前提下,对中国大陆地区除西藏外的30个省份在1996年到2014年间的综合科教水平的收敛性进行研究。发现无论全国整体,还是东、中、西部地区的综合科教水平都存在着共同的发展规律与趋势：早期绝对β-收敛性显著,但随着时间发展其发散性越来越强。虽然只有全国的空间自相关显著,但在以queen为权重的空间计量分析中,考虑空间因素比不考虑空间因素的显著性提高,且β在增大,也就是说发散性更强了。因此要提高区域经济的均衡发展,采取措施促进综合科教水平的均衡发展是至关重要的。

Based on the absolute β-convergence of Baumol model, this paper calculate a comprehensive scientific and technological input level index with 8 representative indicators at first.Then this paper study the convergence of the 30 provinces except Tibet Chinese mainland area from 1996 to 2014. No matter the whole country, or in the East, the Middle or the West, there is a common law and a trend. That is in the early stage the β-convergence is significant, but along with the time , the divergence is more and more strong. Although only the spatial autocorrelation is significant in the whole country, Considering the spatial factors the significance is improved and the value of β is increased , that is to say the divergent stronger. So if we want to enhance the balanced development of regional economy, balanced development to take measures to promote the comprehensive investment in science and technology is crucial.

F015

国家社科基金一般项目，基于产业结构优化的我国区际产业转移绩效比较研究（项目编号：12BJL067