供给侧改革与我国产业结构优化研究——基于1993-2014年省级面板数据的实证分析

The Study of Structural Reform on the Part of Supply and Optimization of the Industrial Structure in China———An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Panel Data from 1993 to 2014

摘要:

基于1993-2014年的省级面板数据,本文利用产业结构高级化值估计了我国的产业结构优化指标值,并根据索洛余值法测算了各省历年的全要素生产率水平。在对我国产业结构演进过程梳理基础上,从供给因素视角,分析了我国产业结构优化的影响因素及其优化路径。结果表明:资本投入是我国产业结构优化的主要决定因素, 全要素生产率在我国产业结构优化中发挥着越来越重要的作用,而劳动力供给的作用则有所减弱。此外,本文还发现全要素生产率与资本投入对产业结构优化的影响随着地区的经济发达程度呈递增关系。

Abstract:

Based on the provincial panel data from 1993 to 2014, this paper using high-level of industrial structure estimates China"s industrial structure optimization index, and according to the solow residual method estimates the total factor productivity of the provincial each years. Based on combed China’s industrial structure evolution process, from the perspective of supply factors, analyzes the influencing factors of the optimization of China"s industrial structure and the path. Results show that: the capital investment is a major determinant of the optimization of industrial structure in China, the total factor productivity in China is playing an increasingly important role in the optimization of industrial structure, but the contribution of labor supply is reduced. In addition, this paper also found that the total factor productivity and capital investment to the influence of the optimization of industrial structure increasing as the region"s economic development level.