PPP项目提前终止风险因素与传导路径分析

Research on Risks and Pathways of PPP Projects’ Early-Termination

摘要:

自从PPP模式在我国应用以来,我国许多PPP项目由于缺乏对全生命周期风险因素的有效监控,在实际操作过程中遇到了很多问题。PPP项目遭遇失败乃至提前终止是无论公私合作的任何一方都不愿意看到的后果。通过对以往文献的梳理,根据项目进程识别出PPP项目全生命周期风险因素。在构建全过程风险因素与PPP项目提前终止的因果关系结构模型的基础上,运用问卷调查获得的数据进行模型估计,运用AMOS软件对模型进行检验并修正。通过计算各变量效应关系并对所得结论进行解释,找出导致PPP项目提前终止的关键风险因素以及具体的影响关系。

Abstract:

During the application of PPP model, PPP project in China has encountered many problems, such as cost overrun, construction delays, and so on. Failure and early termination is an awful consequence that both government and private partnerships are not willing to afford. Through literature review, identify life cycle risks that affect the performance of PPP projects. Built a structural equation model and assumed that life cycle risks contributed to early termination. Data obtained by questionnaire survey was used to estimate the model, and AMOS software was used to test and modify it. Through calculation of effect relationships between variables, suggestive conclusions were given.