经济的快速发展带来能源需求压力的增大,进而引起碳排放急剧增加,打破碳排放与经济增长的关联性,是实现产业节能减排的治本之策。利用Tapio脱钩模型和改进LMDI分解方法对2000-2014年中国装备制造业碳排放与经济增长之间的脱钩关系进行测度。研究结果表明：装备制造业碳排放与经济增长总体上呈现弱脱钩关系,经济增长速度快于碳排放增长速度,经济产出效应是影响装备制造业碳排放的主要诱因；装备制造行业间脱钩指数存在较大差异,各行业强脱钩效应呈现不断增加的趋势。研究发现,能源消费强度降低是实现经济增长与碳排放脱钩的最关键因素；各行业脱钩努力指标各年均小于1,呈逐年减小趋势且处于弱脱钩状态。最后本文采用GM灰色系统预测模型,对2015-2024年间装备制造业碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系进行预测,进而为装备制造业调整产业结构,节能减排提供更有针对性的建议。

The rapid development of economy brings the pressure of energy consumption increases, resulting in carbon emissions increased dramatically. Breaking the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth, which is an effective way of fundamentally improving industrial energy conservation and emissions reduction. This paper established the decoupling evaluation model and improved LMDI decomposition evaluate the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth of equipment manufacturing industry in China from 2000 to 2014. Results show that: the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth of equipment manufacturing industry as a whole is in state of weak decoupling, reflecting that economic growth faster than emissions growth. The effect of economic output is the main inducement of carbon emissions of equipment manufacturing industry; but decoupling indexes exist large difference among equipment manufacturing industries and there is a trend of increase the number of strong decoupling effect. The study found that, the decrease of energy consumption intensity is the most critical factor to realize the decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions. The annual of industries’ decoupling-effort indicators are all less than 1, presenting decreasing each year and which in the state of weak decoupling. At the end of the paper, the author predicts the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth of equipment manufacturing industry period of 2015-2024 by GM forecast model, in order to put forward some corresponding suggestions of adjust the industrial structure of the equipment manufacturing industry and energy-saving emissions reduction.

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国家自然科学基金“风电技术装备协同创新的实现机制与政策设计研究”(71373005)，教育部人文社会科学基金“重大技术装备协同创新的政策设计研究”（15YJAZH093），中央高校基本科研专项基金“基于计算实验的风电产业培育机制与政策设计研究”（NR2015002），中央高校基本科研专项基金“新能源产业发展机制与政策效应研究”（NR2016302），江苏省高校哲学社会科学重点项目“经济新常态下区域环境治理的政策设计研究”(2016ZDIXM006)与南京航空航天大学研究生创新基地（实验室）开放基金“碳约束情景下可再生能源政策分析模型及应用研究”（kfjj20160110）资助