利用ArcGIS平台探究山东省碳排放演化格局,根据山东省各市2005年、2007年、2010年和2012年四个年份各市碳排放时空格局演化趋势,得出山东省碳排放总量未来有进一步增加的趋势。利用系统动力学构建山东省能源-经济-社会-环境(碳排放)系统动力力学模型,运用VENSIM软件平台对山东省未来经济发展情景进行定量化动态模拟,研究山东省低碳经济发展的可行方案。设置四种不同的发展情景方案,预测在不同情景方案下山东省低碳经济综合发展状况。研究结果表明,在情景Ⅳ模式下,山东省2020年经济发展规模、能源消耗量、碳排放总量、单位GDP碳排放都要优于其他三种场景下模拟出的结果,得出山东省低碳经济协调发展的最优方案,为山东省低碳经济发展和规划提供决策支持。

Based on the ArcGIS platform, this paper firstly explores the evolution pattern of carbon emissions in Shandong Province. According to the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon emissions in Shandong Province during 2005,2007,2010,2012, the trend of the total amount of carbon emission in Shandong province is obtained in the future. Then, this paper constructs the system dynamic model of energy-economy-society-environment and using the VENSIM software platform to study and simulate the future economic development of Shandong province. This paper sets up four kinds of different development scenarios to predict comprehensive development status of Shandong Province. In 2020, the results of the study show that the scale of economic development, energy consumption, carbon emissions, carbon emissions per unit of GDP are better than the other three scenarios to simulate the results in Shandong province. Finally, the optimal solution of the coordinated development of low carbon economy in Shandong province is obtained, which provides decision support for the development of low carbon economy in Shandong province.

F201;F205;X24

国家自然科学“区域复合生态经济系统耦合效应与政策调控研究——以黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为例”(71371112)；山东省自然科学“山东半岛蓝色经济区环境经济复合系统仿真与预警机制研究”(ZR2012GM020) ,王格,张慧