科技发展投资驱动下的一次能源消费最优控制模型

Optimum control model of primary energy consumption with driving factor of investment in technology development

摘要:

为了研究科技发展投资对于一次能源消费控制的驱动作用,首先构建一次能源消费的IPAT模型和经济发展水平的C-D生产函数模型,运用Johansen-Juselius协整检验方法确定IPAT模型和C-D生产函数模型的参数,在此基础上构建基于最优控制理论的一次能源消费最优控制模型,使用该模型获得一次能源消费的最优化路径和科技发展投资的最优控制路径,分析科技发展投资对于一次能源消费的驱动效果。在我国“十三五”期间经济发展约束下,运用该模型研究我国“十三五”期间科技发展投资驱动下的一次能源消费的优化问题,研究结果显示：在科技水平不断提升的前提下,我国一次能源消费量理论上可以呈现不断降低的理想发展趋势,2020年下降到330940万吨标煤,同时我国科技发展投资应保持年均26.6%的高速增长,在科技发展的驱动下,我国全社会固定资产投资的GDP占比也可以呈现不断降低的趋势,从而实现科技发展驱动下的集约式发展模式。

关键词:科技发展投资;一次能源消费;最优控制理论;IPAT模型;Johansen-Juselius协整检验

Abstract:

Aiming to study the driving effect of investment in technology development to control primary energy consumption, IPAT model about primary energy consumption and C-D production function about economic development are established firstly, then parameters of IPAT model and C-D production function are calculated by Johansen-Juselius cointegeration test theory. The optimum control model of primary energy consumption is constructed to acquire the optimum trace of primary energy consumption and the optimum control trace of investment in technology development, he driving function of investment in technology development is analyzed furthermore. With the constraint of economic development during “13_th five years”, the optimization problem of primary energy consumption is studied, results show that Chinese primary energy consumption can be controlled to decline continuously in theory in the condition of rapid growth of technology. In 2020, primary energy consumption can decline to 330940 million tons of standard coal, however, Chinese technology development investment should increase sharply with 26.6% growth rate. With the driving function of technology development, the ratio of total investment in fixed assets to GDP can also decrease continuously, hence the intensive development model of economy can be achieved with the driving function of technology development.

Key words:investment in technology development; primary energy consumption; optimum control theory; IPAT model; Johansen-Juselius cointegeration test