N-K模型下煤矿重大瓦斯事故风险耦合致因分析

Analysis of Risk Coupling in the Major Coal Mine Gas Accident under N-K Model

摘要:

煤矿重特大瓦斯事故的时有发生给国家造成巨大人员伤亡和财产损失,然而事故的产生并不局限于单一因素影响,而是由多个风险因素之间相互耦合作用造成的。因此,研究耦合视角下的煤矿瓦斯事故致因模型,从单因素、双因素和多因素的角度来分析瓦斯风险因素之间的耦合关系,并利用N-K模型对2000-2014年所发生的375起煤矿重大瓦斯事故风险耦合程度进行度量,结果表明：耦合过程中随着参与因素的增多耦合程度逐渐增大；管理因素和人的因素在煤矿瓦斯事故风险耦合过程中参与最多,造成的风险较大。因此,在煤矿瓦斯事故风险耦合过程中,应加强对关键因素管理,避免在系统脆弱处发生多因素耦合作用。

Abstract:

The major coal mine gas accidents occurred frequently which make a huge casualties and property losses to the state. However, the accident is not limited to a single factor, but rather due to the multiple factors coupling .Therefore , research on coal mine gas accident causation model based on risk coupling which is divided into single factor , two-factor and multi-factor coupling to analysis the coupling relationships. Then, the N-K model was used to analyze the probability and the degree of coupling in 375 major gas accidents between years 2000-2014. The results indicate that: the degree of coupling is gradually increased with the increase of the number of risk factors; the management factors are most involved in the process of coal mine gas explosion risk coupling. Therefore, in the process of coal mine gas accidents, the management of key factors should be strengthen to avoid coupling the vulnerability of the system.