示范区建设背景下江苏省区域引进FDI的碳排放效应研究

Empirical research on carbon emission effects on the FDI introduction in Jiangsu province on the background of demonstration zone of Sunan

摘要:

苏南现代化示范区建设为“强富美高”新江苏建设带来机遇的同时，更多体现为对江苏生态文明建设的要求和环境制度的约束。基于江苏省1995－2014年统计数据，应用改进的Kaya模型和二次能源碳排放测算的新方法测算江苏终端能源碳排放量，通过构建FDI碳排放环境-经济联立方程组进行碳排放效应测算。结果表明:江苏省引进FDI对碳排放量增长的总效应是正向的，单位GDP消耗的碳排放呈现逐年下降态势。苏中地区引进FDI的减排效应最高，苏南次之。从碳排放量与地区GDP的正相关来看，江苏省经济发展水平仍未达到呈倒“U”形的环境库兹涅茨曲线拐点。研究还显示，第二产业的发展对碳排放量影响较大，其结构优化有利于碳排放的大幅下降.为此，根据四种效应提出了对策建议。

Abstract:

The construction of South Jiangsu modernization demonstration area bring an opportunity to build a “Strong rich beautiful high” new Jiangsu , while more reflected in the constraints of environmental system. Based on the statistical data of Jiangsu from 1995 to 2014, this paper calculate the carbon emissions in Jiangsu through improved KAYA model and a new method to estimate the secondary energy carbon emissions, then applies the simultaneous equations model to establish economic-environment simultaneous equations based on the introduction of FDI and carbon emissions in Jiangsu. The results show that the introduction of FDI in Jiangsu has a positive effect on the growth of carbon emissions in general, and there is a declining trend for carbon emissions per unit of GDP. The central section area of Jiangsu has the highest reduction effect, and the south is second, the north is last. Seeing from the carbon emissions and regional GDP’s positively correlated relationship, the economic development level of Jiangsu is still not reached the inflection point of environmental Kuznets curve with a inverted "U" shape. The study also shows that the secondary industry has bigger impact on carbon emissions, it is beneficial to reduce the FDI proportion of that industry for releasing the pressure on carbon emissions. Therefore this article put forward some advice.