探讨研发投入强度的演变规律，分析全球研发投入强度的变化趋势，总结中国研发投入强度的变化特征，确定中国研发投入强度的影响制约因素；然后，采用GM(1，1) 等维新息模型和趋势预测模型的组合预测模型，预测“十三五”时期中国的研发经费支出。采用趋势预测法和多情景模拟预测法的组合预测模型，对“十三五”时期中国的研发投入强度进行模拟预测。并从政府和企业研发投入角度，提出保障实现2020年中国科技发展规划目标的政策建议。研究结果表明，从国际上看，多数创新型国家的科技发展在工业化初级阶段和工业化中级阶段带有政府主导的特征，政府R&D资金所占的比重大多超过40%。与国际相比，我国R&D经费中政府R&D资金所占的比重偏少，中国研发投入强度没有达到预期目标、偏离了研发投入强度的演变规律，且滞后于当前工业化程度。虽然我国政府对R&D经费的投入在逐年增加，但2003-2013年的十年间，我国政府的R&D经费支出占总量的比重仅达到20%-30%左右。“十三五”时期，我国在继续加大政府和企业R&D经费支出的基础上，预计2020年中国研发投入强度将超过2.5%的预期目标，达到2.6%-2.7%左右。中国有望从“世界科技大国”转变为“世界科技强国”。

Refer to the research literature at home and abroad, the research resultsSof R D’s input are reviewed. Based on it, firstly, the evolution regular of input intensity of R D is discussed, and the change trend of global input intensity of R D is analyzed, to conclude the characteristics of input intensity of R D in china, and determine the influence factors of input intensity of R D. Secondly, R D spending in “thirteen-five” period is predicted with combination forecasting model of GM (1, 1) model and trend prediction model, combined with the natural development trend of R D spending. Thirdly, input intensity of R D is predicted with combination forecasting model of trend prediction model and scenario simulation prediction method. Finally, the policy suggestions of ensuring realizing the anticipated goal of science and technology are given by 2020. The results show that, the key factor of affecting the input intensity of R D is the deficiency of government’s input weight of R D. The government R D funds is more than 40% In the world, while the government R D funds is only 20%-30% in china. In “thirteen-five” period, the input intensity would reach 2.6%-2.7%, more than the expected goal 2.5% in 2020, while government’s input scale of R D increase continuously.

F124.3

国家自然科学青年基金项目“三条红线刚性约束下流域初始水权分配模式与优化分配模型研究”