丝绸之路经济带背景下纺织业竞争力评价与动态预测——以新疆为例

Evaluation and Dynamic Prediction of Textile Industry Competitiveness in Context of Silk Road Economic Belt：A Case Study of Xinjiang

摘要:

提升产业竞争力是支撑丝绸之路经济带建设的重要举措。基于“四位一体”的分析框架,本文构建了新疆纺织业竞争力评价指标体系,并采用改进型突变级数法对其竞争力水平进行评价,结果表明：2006-2014年间,随着基础竞争力、核心竞争力、潜在竞争力和环境竞争力的稳步上升,新疆纺织业竞争力水平稳定于0.90左右,同时,新疆纺织业的竞争效率不断提升。基于指数平滑法的预测表明,“十三五”时期新疆纺织业竞争力水平将呈缓慢上升趋势。

Abstract:

Enhancing the industrial competitiveness is strong support for the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt. Based on the “four in one” analysis framework, an evaluation index system for the competitiveness of the textile industry of Xinjiang is constructed and the level of Xinjiang’s textile industry competitiveness is also evaluated by using the improved catastrophe progression method.The results show that from the year 2006 to 2014, with the steady growth of the basic competitiveness, core competitiveness, potential competitiveness and environmental competitiveness, the competitiveness level of Xinjiang’s textile industrial remains relatively stable around 0.9. In the meanwhile, there has been a continuous rise in the competition efficiency of the textile industry in Xinjiang.Prediction based on the exponential smoothing shows that Xinjiang’s textile industry competitiveness level will slowly grow during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.