基于PLS的区域碳排放驱动因素及减排路径研究-以山东省为例

A Research on driving factors of Regional carbon emissions and reduction path in Shan Dong

摘要:

采用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC)2006年版能源消耗碳排放计算公式和水泥生产碳排放模型,选取2005-2014年能源消费数据和水泥产量数据,计算并分析山东省十年间的碳排放量及其特征,并通过偏最小二乘(PLS)回归模型利用2005-2014年山东省社会经济统计数据对碳排放驱动因素进行研究,研究表明：燃料、动力类价格对碳排放具有显著的抑制作用,解释能力为0.8943；其余变量与碳排放均呈正相关,其中人口增长、居民消费水平、地区生产总值、城市化率、外商直接投资对促进碳排放解释能力最为显著,其变量投影重要性分别为1.15、1.14、1.14、1.12和1.12。另外,技术创新、能源消费量、水泥产量、产业结构和能源结构对碳排放的促进作用也是非常重要的。通过上述研究成果,为相关政府部门制定节能减排政策提供参考。

Abstract:

Using the carbon emissions model of energy consumption and cement production Offered by United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2006.This paper calculates and analyzes the number and characteristics of carbon emissions in Shandong Province by energy consumption data and cement production data and constructs partial least squares regression model to analyze driving factors of carbon emissions by using the socio-economic statistics of Shandong Province from 2005 to 2014. Research shows that price of fuel and power are negatively correlated with carbon emissions. The explanatory power is 0.89. Population growth, residentsS"consumption level, GDP, urbanization rate and FDI promote carbon emissions significantly in the rest of the variables. Variable importance in the projection of them are 1.15、1.14、1.14、1.12 and 1.12 separately. In addition, technological innovation, energy consumption, cement production, industrial structure and energy structure are also very important for promoting to carbon emissions. Finally, the article puts forward suggestions to control carbon for relevant government branch.