长江经济带创新产出的空间计量经济分析

Spatial Econometric Analysis of innovation output in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

摘要:

以长江经济带124个地级市、自治州和2个直辖市为研究单元,用专利授权量表征创新产出,运用标准差、变异系数、ESDA和空间计量经济模型等方法,对1986～2014年长江经济带创新产出的时空演变特征及形成机制进行探讨,研究表明：1)长江经济带创新产出的绝对差异在2001年以前增加缓慢,其后迅速拉大,从2002年的256.45增加到2012年的12323.68,其后,明显下降。相对差异1994年以前大致呈下降趋势,其后缓慢增加,2002年后增加显著,在2003年达到最高点3.12,2009年的相对差异出现明显的下降。2001年加入世界贸易组织及2008年金融危机后的产业转移对长江经济带创新产出差异具有重要影响。2)长江经济市创新产出的高的地市数量变化不大,分布较为集中,但有向中部地区蔓延的趋势,主要位于长三角地区及中西部的省会城市重庆、成都、长沙、合肥,近五年来,芜湖市、马鞍山市、合肥市、连云港市创新产出提升明显。3)长江经济带地市创新产出空间关联特征以正相关为主,空间集聚特征明显,且空间格局大致稳定,长三角地区一直都是创新产出密集聚集的地区,而中西部地区大多是低低集聚地区,高低集聚的地市单元主要是中西部一些省会城市。4)空间交互作用是长江经济带创新产出产生空间差异的重要原因,科技投入和科技政策对长江经济带创新产出具有显著影响,经济发展、人才资源、FDI及通讯基础设施对创新产出也具有较大影响,传统基础设施对创新产出作用最小,而外资在区域经济中的渗透程度对创新产出具有抑制作用。

Abstract:

The 124 prefecture level cities, autonomous prefectures and 2 municipalities of the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research unit. The patent licensing is indicated as innovation output. Using standard deviation, coefficient of variation, ESDA, Spatial Econometric Model and other methods to study the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics, and formation mechanism of innovation output in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 1986 to 2014.The results show that: (1) The absolute difference of innovation output in the Yangtze River Economic Belt increased slowly before 2001, and then quickly pulled up, from 256.45 in 2002 increased to 12323.68 in 2012, subsequently, significantly decreased. The relative difference generally decreased before 1994, then increased slowly, increased significantly after 2002, reached the highest point of 3.12 in 2003, the relative difference decreased obviously in 2009. Accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 and industrial transfer after the financial crisis in 2008 has an important influence on the innovation output of the Yangtze River Economic Belt difference. (2) The number of high Innovation output cities is little change in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, distribution is more concentrated, but there is a tendency to spread to the central region, mainly located in the Yangtze River Delta region and the central and western provincial capital city of Chongqing, Chengdu, Changsha, Hefei. Over the past five years, the innovation output was improved significantly in which Wuhu, MaAnshan, Hefei, Lianyungang city. (3) The spatial correlation of innovation output in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is mainly related to main, the characteristics of spatial agglomeration are obvious, and the spatial pattern is roughly stable. Yangtze River Delta region has been the innovation output dense aggregations of the area, and in the central and western regions are mostly low concentration area and level of agglomeration, the unit is mainly the Midwest capital city. (4) Spatial interaction is an important cause of spatial difference of innovation output in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, investment in science and technology policy has a significant impact on innovation output in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Economic development, human resources, FDI and communications infrastructure have a great impact on innovation output, traditional infrastructure to minimize the role of innovation output, And the degree of foreign investment in the regional economy has an inhibitory effect on innovation output. The penetration of foreign investment in the regional economy has an inhibitory effect on innovation output.