科技创新、金融发展与产业结构升级——基于贝叶斯分位数回归的分析*

Technology Innovation,Financial Development and Industral Strucyure Upgrading——Based on Bayesian Quantile Regression

摘要:

经济“新常态”下如何推动产业结构升级,是一个亟待研究的问题。文章以中国1985-2014的时间序列数据为样本,运用贝叶斯分位数方法实证分析了科技创新、金融发展与产业结构升级的关系。结论为：科技创新和金融发展均能促进产业结构升级；但是二者对产业结构升级的提升程度存在差异：科技创新对产业结构升级的提升程度小于金融发展,金融发展水平的提高对产业结构升级的提升作用较大,而科技创新对产业结构升级的影响呈现出倒“U”型关系,且对产业结构升级的提升作用不明显。提出推行“大数据、网络化、智能化”的创新发展模式、推动金融供给侧改革和加快科技金融的发展等建议。

Abstract:

In the “new normal” of economy how to promote the upgrading of industrial structure, is an urgent study. Taking the time series data 1985-2014 China as samples, Using Bayesian quantile method to analyze the relationship between technological innovation, financial development and industrial structure upgrading. The conclusion is:technological innovation and financial development can promote the upgrading of industrial structure; however, there are differences between the two to enhance the degree of upgrading industrial structure: the degree of scientific and technological innovation improving the upgrading the industrial structure is less than financial development, improving the level of financial development on the upgrading of industrial structure enhance the role of the larger, the impact of technological innovation and industrial upgrading of the structure showing the inverted "U" shaped relationship, and enhance the role of upgrading the industrial structure is not obvious. Proposed the implementation of "big data, networking, intelligent" innovation and development model to promote financial reform and supply-side speed up technological development of the financial proposals.