“十三五”时期浙江省制造业主导产业选择研究

Study on the Selection of Leading Industry of Zhejiang’s Manufacturing Industry during 13th-Five-Year

摘要:

为有效区分产业部门区域优势、区域竞争力与区域结构优势，本文运用改进后的动态偏离-份额分析Esteban空间模型，构建了一种选择区域主导产业的新基准。随后利用浙江省“十二五”时期数据，进行了空间自相关检验与三维空间图分析，验证了“十三五”时期浙江省应大力发展动漫、新闻出版、文体用品制造业，时尚服装服饰业，时尚皮革制造业，时尚家居用品业，新能源汽车及电池产业，航空和轨道交通、高端船舶与海工装备产业，新材料产业。

Abstract:

To distinguish regional advantages of industry, regional competitiveness of industry and regional structural advantages of industry, this paper sets up a new benchmark for the selection of regional leading industries, based on an improved Esteban Model of Dynamic Spatial Shift-Share Analysis. Again, it shows the spatial autocorrelation test and the application of three-dimensional diagram analysis in leading industry selection, taking Zhejiang Province’s manufacturing industry as an example. Finally, comparing policy suggestion from the theoretical model with the actual choice of leading industry in Zhejiang Province, it verifies that the leading industry of Zhejiang’s manufacturing industry during 13th-Five-Year should includes animation, press and publication, stationery and sports goods manufacturing industry; fashion and apparel industry; fashion leather manufacturing industry; fashionable household goods industry; new energy vehicles and battery industry; air and rail transportation, high-end of the ship and marine engineering equipment industry; new material industry.