基于时变参数模型的能源回弹效应研究

Research on energy rebound effect based on time varying parameter model

摘要:

能源效率内生化一直是能源回弹效应研究领域拓展的主要方向之一。在能源增进型技术进步的假设前提下,以内生经济增长理论为基础,构建了劳动和能源效率内生化的新古典C-D生产函数。结合时变参数模型和卡尔曼滤波迭代估计等方法对北京市1981-2014年的短期和长期能源回弹效应进行了实证分析。研究发现:北京市短期能源回弹效应均值为149.29%,整体上处于逆反效应；长期能源回弹效应均值为79.21%,存在较强的部分回弹效应。从长期来看,北京市以能效改进为核心的节能减排政策是可行的,但要注意短期内由于城市经济规模扩张带来的能源回弹效应。最后,从技术创新、产业结构、要素投入及要素价格改革方面提供了限制能源回弹效应的政策思路。

Abstract:

Energy efficiency endogenesis has always been one of the main directions in the research field of energy rebound effect. Under the hypothesis of energy enhancement technology progress, based on endogenous economic growth theory, the new classical C-D production function of labor and energy efficiency is constructed. Combining the time varying parameter model with Calman filter iterative estimation method, the short-term and long-term energy rebound effects of 1981-2014 in Beijing were analyzed. The study found that Beijing short-term energy rebound effect is 149.29%, the overall effect is in the reverse; Long term energy rebound effect is 79.21% and there is a strong part of the rebound effect. In the long run, Beijing energy efficiency improvement as the core of energy-saving emission reduction policy is feasible, but attention should be paid to the energy rebound effect caused by the expansion of urban economy in the short term. Finally, from aspects of the technical innovation, industrial structure, factor inputs and factor price reform, it provides the polic ideas to limit the rebound effect of energy.