[关键词]
[摘要]
对影响国家电网的颠覆性创新技术等因素进行重要程度分析和综合排序是对国家电网公司来讲非常重要的实际问题。本文首先构建了对国网有影响的颠覆性创新技术指标体系，利用Delphi法对国网中出现的颠覆性创新技术进行了调查分析，得出专家的积极性、权威性和变异系数，进一步由Delphi法专家打分计算出指标权重；然后基于DEMATEL法和专家对各个指标之间的相互影响关系，对影响国网的这些因素进行分析研究，进行算例分析，得出各个指标的影响度、被影响度、中心度、原因度和综合影响度，分析各个指标影响因素的重要影响程度，为国网公司应对颠覆性创新技术提供参考。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
It?is?an?very?important?and?actual?thing?to?State?Grid?corporation?to?make an analysis of importance and?a?comprehensive?rank?in?terms?of?the?different?influences?of?disruptive?innovation?technology.?Firstly,?this?paper?builds?an?index?system?of?disruptive?innovation?technology?that?may?have?affect?to?State?Grid?corporation?.At?the?same?time,?Delphi?method?is?used?to?make?a?survey?analysis?to?those?disruptive?innovation?technologies,?and?obtain?experts’?initiative、authoritative?and?the?variation?coefficient,?further,?calculate?the?index?weight?by?Delphi?expert?scoring?method.??Then,?based?on?DEMATEL?method?and?expert,?analysis?and?study?the?relationship?of?various?indicators?and?these?indicators?which?may?influence?State?Grid?corporation,?and?by?study?analysis,?we?can?get?influence?degree、affected?degree、centralize?degree、cause?degree?and?combined?effects?degree, by means of analyzing the importance degree of each indicator ?factors to provide?a?references?for?State?Grid?corporation?to?deal?with?disruptive?innovations.
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[基金项目]
国家自然科学基金项目“智能电网运营风险元扰动与传递理论模型及其应用”（71271084）;国家科技攻关计划“公司科技发展战略决策关键技术研究”‘（KJGW2015-020）
