基于Delphi和DEMATEL法影响国网的颠覆性创新技术影响因素综合排序分析

Comprehensive Analysis to Affect Factors of Disruptive Innovations in the State Grid Based on Delphi and DEMATEL Law

摘要:

对影响国家电网的颠覆性创新技术等因素进行重要程度分析和综合排序是对国家电网公司来讲非常重要的实际问题。本文首先构建了对国网有影响的颠覆性创新技术指标体系，利用Delphi法对国网中出现的颠覆性创新技术进行了调查分析，得出专家的积极性、权威性和变异系数，进一步由Delphi法专家打分计算出指标权重；然后基于DEMATEL法和专家对各个指标之间的相互影响关系，对影响国网的这些因素进行分析研究，进行算例分析，得出各个指标的影响度、被影响度、中心度、原因度和综合影响度，分析各个指标影响因素的重要影响程度，为国网公司应对颠覆性创新技术提供参考。

关键词:颠覆性创新技术;Delphi法;DEMATEL法;国家电网公司

Abstract:

It?is?an?very?important?and?actual?thing?to?State?Grid?corporation?to?make an analysis of importance and?a?comprehensive?rank?in?terms?of?the?different?influences?of?disruptive?innovation?technology.?Firstly,?this?paper?builds?an?index?system?of?disruptive?innovation?technology?that?may?have?affect?to?State?Grid?corporation?.At?the?same?time,?Delphi?method?is?used?to?make?a?survey?analysis?to?those?disruptive?innovation?technologies,?and?obtain?experts’?initiative、authoritative?and?the?variation?coefficient,?further,?calculate?the?index?weight?by?Delphi?expert?scoring?method.??Then,?based?on?DEMATEL?method?and?expert,?analysis?and?study?the?relationship?of?various?indicators?and?these?indicators?which?may?influence?State?Grid?corporation,?and?by?study?analysis,?we?can?get?influence?degree、affected?degree、centralize?degree、cause?degree?and?combined?effects?degree, by means of analyzing the importance degree of each indicator ?factors to provide?a?references?for?State?Grid?corporation?to?deal?with?disruptive?innovations.

Key words:Subversive Innovation Technology;Delphi Method;DEMATEL Method;State?Grid?Corporation of China