碳价格对我国工业部门竞争力及减排效应研究*

The Impacts of Carbon Price on Industrial Competitiveness and Emission Reduction——Analysis Based on Input-Output Simulation

摘要:

我国经济呈现新常态并且承诺2030年碳排放达峰的背景下，需要发挥市场化机制的基础性作用并完成达峰目标。本文通过构建扩展的投入产出模型，模拟评价各部门因碳价格引入所承受的短期影响，并量化评估为缓解能源密集型和贸易暴露度型部门的竞争力影响所采取的补偿减缓措施的效应。分析表明，短期内引入与发达国家相同水平碳价格会对我国产业竞争力产生严重损害，能源强度和碳排放强度高的部门承担了所有工业部门中的主要成本负担。能源密集型且高碳排放的行业，碳价格额外成本导致的价格水平上涨幅度和产出下降幅度更大，贸易暴露型部门如大部分制造业的出口下降幅度也较大。缓解措施模拟情景下，对关键部门的减缓效应达到原竞争力损失的70%左右，降低了对价格、产出和出口的负面影响，但产生的节能减排效果会有所削弱。因此，应结合不同部门的成本承受能力、需求价格弹性及对不同碳价格水平的反映程度进行调整，制定合适的碳价格策略或采取相应的缓解和补偿措施。

Abstract:

In the context of China’s economy development entering “new normal” and commitment of carbon emission peaking in 2030, it is essential to fully use the market mechanism to reach the peak target. This paper considers the characteristics of energy consumption and carbon emissions from China"s industrial sectors, to simulate and evaluate short-term effects for a carbon price on each sector by building the Input-Output model. The result shows that if carbon price in China is set as high as the developed country, it will produce serious damage to China"s industrial competitiveness. Sectors with high energy intensity and carbon emissions intensity will be responsible for all the main cost burden. The export of trade exposure sector such as most of the manufacturing sectors declines much. This paper defines the key sector where the mitigation measures will be introduced in by establishing the index of carbon cost intensity and export trade intensity. In the simulation scenario, negative competitiveness effect will be reduced on price, output and export, but the energy conservation and emissions reduction effect will also be weakened. Therefore, the short-term policy effect on sectors should be concerned, and the different carbon price should be implemented in different sector according to their cost supporting capability, supporting capability and extent of the carbon price, to maintain its development space and adjustment ability in the era of carbon emissions constraints.