大型PPP项目平稳演化风险非线性回归测度模型及实证分析

Nonlinear Time-varying Measurement Model and Empirical Analysis About Smooth Evolution Risk of The Large PPP Project

摘要:

本文运用非线性回归计量方法研究在无重大事件引起项目风险突变的情况下,大型PPP项目风险受项目宏观环境、微观环境、主体能力及合作关系等多种因素影响而平稳演化的规律。首先,通过案例分析找出大型PPP项目风险演化的主要驱动变量；其次,构建项目风险非线性回归计量模型,并将其变形、简化为线性回归模型；最后,结合实例对模型参数进行估计和检验。通过研究发现,项目风险在一定阈值范围内变化时,大型PPP项目风险与环境、主体变量之间存在稳定均衡的非线性负相关,宏观环境是项目风险最重要的影响变量。

Abstract:

If no fatal events cause structure and nature of risk to change, we can research risk evolution of Large PPP projects with nonlinear regression method. There are three influence factors which are macroscopic environment, micro environment, subject’s capacity and their cooperative relationship. This research has three steps. Firstly, it finds out the three main drive variables of project risk evolution through case analysis. Secondly, it builds non-linear time-varying measurement model and transforms it to classical regression model. Lastly, it estimates and tests model parameter by an example. The study shows that there is a long and integral negative correlation between three independent variables and project risk within a certain threshold range, and macro environment is the most important factor of project risk.