基于LMDI的河北省能源消费碳排放量核算及影响因素实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Carbon Emission Accounting AndInfluencing Factors of Energy Consumption in Hebei Province Based on LMDI Model

摘要:

研究区域碳排放影响因素及作用强度,可针对性的为区域碳排放管理及碳减排政策的制定实施提供一定科学依据。首先,本文分年度测算了河北省2005-2014年的碳排放总量；然后,基于LMDI分解法,选取人口规模、经济规模、能源消费结构、产业结构、能源利用效率和碳排放强度六个经济指标,构建了河北省碳排放影响因素分解模型；最后,定量分析了各经济指标对河北省碳排放的作用强度。实证研究表明：能源消费结构是促进河北省碳排放增长的主要因素,能源利用效率次之；人口规模和经济规模对河北省碳排放增长有一定促进作用,但影响力较弱；产业结构抑制了河北省碳排放增长。在此基础之上,针对性的提出了河北省加强碳排放管理及碳减排的相关政策建议。

Abstract:

Research on the influencing factors and the intensity of regional carbon emission and provide some scientific basis for the development of regional carbon emission management and carbon emission reduction policies. Firstly, the researchmeasured the annual total carbon emissions in Hebei Province 2005-2014,and then, based on LMDI model, selected six of economic indicators ,population size, the scale of economies, the energy consumption structure, industrial structure, energy utilization efficiency and carbon emissions intensity, constructed the decomposition model of influencing factors of carbon emissions in Hebei Province. Finally, analyzed quantitatively the intensity of action that the various economic indicators to carbon emission on the Hebei Provincial .Empirical studies showed that the energy consumption structure is the main factors promoted the growth of carbon emissions in Hebei Province, the following is energy utilization efficiency,population size and the scale of economies has a certain role in promoting to the growth of carbon emissions in Hebei Province, but weaker strength,industrial structure inhibited the growth of carbon emissions in Hebei Province. On the basis of this, it putted forward some policy suggestions on strengthening the management of carbon emission and carbon emission reduction in Hebei province.