工业集聚、城镇化与环境污染——基于非线性门槛效应的实证研究

Industrial Agglomeration, Urbanization and Environmental Pollution: An Empirical Analysis Based on Nonlinear Threshold Effect

摘要:

利用中国30个省级地区2000-2014年的面板数据,运用门槛回归方法,以工业集聚为门槛变量,实证分析工业集聚、工业集聚与城镇化的耦合效应对污染排放的影响,并将样本总体划分为东部、中部、西部和东北四组,检验工业集聚环境外部性的区域差异。结果表明：工业集聚与环境污染的关系呈“倒U型”特征；工业集聚通过推动经济发展减少污染物排放；工业集聚与城镇化的良性互动显著降低了环境污染水平；城镇化对工业集聚环境污染效应的门槛位置有重要影响,在四类地区中,城镇化水平较高的东部省份其门槛值明显低于其它地区。

Abstract:

Using the panel data of China’s 30 provinces during 2000 to 2014 and the threshold regression method with industrial agglomeration treated as a threshold variable, this paper empirically analyzes the effects of industrial agglomeration, the coupling effect between industrial agglomeration and urbanization on pollution emissions, and then separates the sampling population into four groups, i.e., eastern, central, western and northeast China to examine whether there exists regional disparity on environmental externality of industrial agglomeration. The results show that: (1) The relationship between agglomeration and pollution is inverted U shaped; (2) agglomeration can reduce pollution emissions through the promotion of economic development; (3) the benign interactions between agglomeration and urbanization significantly cut down environmental pollutions; (4) urbanization plays an important role in determining the threshold value of pollution effect of agglomeration, verified by the fact that eastern China has the highest urbanization level and the lowest threshold value among four groups.