Abstract:(School of Management, Dalian Polytechnic University, Dalian Liaoning 116034, China): With the scarcity of resources and environmental pollution increasingly griming, low-carbon innovation capability becomes an important symbol to represent a sustainable competitive advantage of enterprise. Considering the influencing factors of low-carbon innovation capability of China"s food industry, the paper builds evaluation index system of low-carbon innovation capability from five aspects——resources input of low-carbon innovation, eco-output of low-carbon innovation, science and technology output of low-carbon innovation, economy environment of low-carbon innovation, natural environment of low-carbon innovation. Then,the paper uses state transition matrix and set pair analysis coupling model to evaluate low-carbon innovation capability of China"s food industry in 2011-2014. Making the period 2011-2014 as base period,the paper uses Markov transition matrix to predict low-carbon innovation capability of China"s food industry in 2015-2017,in order to provide a basis for enterprises to enhance their low-carbon innovation capability.