基于德尔菲调查和聚类分析的关键共性技术预见研究——以山西省新材料行业为例

Critical Common Technique Foresight Research Based on Delphi Survey And Cluster Analysis——Taking new material industry in Shanxi Province as an example

摘要:

技术预见是对科学、技术、经济、环境和社会的远期未来进行有步骤的探索过程,通过技术预见对技术项目进行评价选择,从而选定具有最大经济与社会效益的关键共性技术,达到优化资源配置,提高区域或行业综合竞争力的目的。本文在分析了国内外学者关于技术预见研究工作的基础上,构建了山西省新材料行业关键共性技术预见的指标体系,对49项备选技术进行了三轮德尔菲调查,然后运用因子分析法对评价指标进行分析得到因子得分,进而运用聚类分析的方法对因子得分进行分析。结果表明: 上述49个备选技术分为三个层次,第一层次,具有较高的对区域发展促进作用,以及技术的市场需求,发展该技术的重要性和可行性指数很高； 第二层次,对节能减排的作用指数比较高,但是同时技术的市场化成本也比较高。第三层次,虽然在市场化成本等方面有一定优势,但是其他社会经济方面的指数都比较低。

Abstract:

Technique Foresight is a step by step exploring process on the long term future of science, technology, economy, environment and society, evaluate and choose a technique project through predictive technique research, in order to locate the critical common technique with the best economy and society efficiency, to optimize resource allocation, achieve the purpose of improving the comprehensive competitiveness of the region or industry.Based on the analysis of domestic and foreign scholars about the research work of the technique Foresight,this article constructed the index system of critical common technique Foresight of new material industry in Shanxi Province, and gave three rounds of Delphi survey on 49 optional technique, and got factor score by analyzing the evaluation index with factor analysis method,and then analyzed the factor score with cluster analysis method.The results showed that the 49 optional technique were sorted into three levels, the first level, high promotion for regional evelopment and market demand of the technique, the index of importance and feasibility of the technology development is very high.The second level, the index of energy saving and emission reduction is high,but the cost on marketization is also high in the meanwhile. The third level, although with some advantages in marketization cost and other aspects, but in the indexes of other social and economic aspects is relatively low.