研发投资是实现科技创新增强企业国际竞争力的重要环节,对移动通信创新技术研发投资进行科学合理评价具有重要战略和实践意义。基于研发项目多阶段柔性投资特征分析,考虑项目生命周期内综合风险的波动率变化,构建了适用于移动通信创新技术研发的不确定条件下不可逆投资评价的复合实物期权模型并通过某大型移动电话运营商移动支付系统研发投资的案例研究验证了模型的有效实用,项目经理经验推断和客观比较估计具体时段内波动率的可行性。

R D investment is an important part of enhancing the international competitiveness of high-tech enterprises. It is strategic and practical significance to scientifically and reasonably evaluate mobile communication technology R D investment. Based on the analysis of multi-phase flexible in R D investment, and considering the change of volatility in comprehensive risk of the project life cycle, this paper establishes compound real option model to evaluate the mobile communication technology R D investment. Morever, case study on large mobile phone operator who research and develop mobile payment systemt is provided to verify the Validity and practice of evaluation model,as well as the feasibility of the project manager"s empirical inference and objective comparison to estimate the volatility of the specific period of time.

F830.9

国家自然科学基金资助项目(71002098),中国博士后特别资助项目(2010198),青年英才计划项目(YETP1652)。