结合煤矿通风系统中出现的安全问题，基于复杂系统脆性理论，从人、设备、环境和管理4 个方面研究煤矿 通风系统中“参与者子系统”“设备子系统”“环境子系统”和“管理子系统”间的因果影响关系，并构建煤矿通 风系统脆性风险仿真模型；利用煤矿统计数据，对其演化过程和脆性风险的变化过程进行实证分析，进而设计系统 动力学干涉实验，探究煤矿生产量变化与系统脆性风险水平变化的关系。研究表明：管理子系统的脆性演化最快， 更容易导致整个系统的崩溃；超能生产提高比例越高、系统脆性增长的速率越快，崩溃的时间越早。最后，提出煤 矿安全通风系统脆性风险因素以及因素之间脆性关联性的管控措施。

Coal mine ventilation system is the lifeblood of safety production system in coal enterprises. The coal mine ventilation system was studied from the perspective of people, machine, environment, and management based on complex system brittleness theory combining the safety problems from the ventilation system, which includes participant subsystem, facilities subsystem, environment subsystem, and management subsystem. Furthermore, brittleness simulation model of coal mine ventilation system was constructed to empirically analyze its process of brittleness risk using the statistical data from coal mines, and then system dynamic interference experiment was designed to explore the relationship between coal output and risk level of system brittleness. The results show that the brittle evolution of the management subsystem is the fastest, which is more likely to give rise to the collapse of the whole system. Moreover, the higher the proportion of production beyond capacity, the higher the growth rate of the system brittleness, and the earlier the collapse of the system. Finally, management control measures were put forward.

X928；X936

中国博士后科学基金面上项目“演化博弈视角下的煤矿安全监察监管研究”（2017M611953）