我国能源供需结构均衡度及其动态经济影响

Equilibrium degree of China’s energy supply-demand structure and its economic effects

摘要:

基于信息熵方法分析了能源供给子系统和需求子系统内部的均衡度,基于协调度方法分析了能源供需结构均衡度,基于状态空间方程模型分析了能源供需结构均衡度对经济的动态影响,得到了如下结论：能源供给子系统内均衡度处于[0.54,0.62]之间,除2013年开始呈上升趋势外,其余年份均处于波动状态。需求子系统内均衡度处于[0.53,0.71]之间且一直呈上升状态；能源供需结构均衡度处于[0.73,0.81]之间,除2014年为基本均衡外,其余年份均为勉强均衡；能源供需结构均衡度对经济总量影响的弹性系数值处于[1.88,3.58]之间,弹性系数曲线呈“倒U型”,弹性系数值从2010年开始进入下降阶段。

Abstract:

The equilibrium degrees of energy supply and demand subsystems and the equilibrium degree between the two subsystems are calculated based on the methods of information entropy and the coordination degree, and the dynamic effects of it on the economy are analyzed by using the state space model. The following conclusions are got: China’s equilibrium degrees of energy supply system are between 0.54 and 0.62, which are low and fluctuate expect the year of 2013 and 2014. The equilibrium degrees of energy demand system are between 0.53 and 0.71, which are relatively high and rising. The equilibrium degrees of the energy supply-demand system are between 0.73 and 0.81, which are all in the barely balanced state expect the year of 2014. The elastic coefficient values of the impact of energy supply-demand structure equilibrium degree on economy are between 1.88 and 3.58, which is an inverted U curve, and it entered the decline phase from 2014.