技术进步是实现节能减排和低碳环保的重要推动力之一,研究不同技术对碳排放的影响有利于充分发挥技术进步的作用。基于中国2005~2014省际面板数据,运用门槛模型从经济发展和环境规制两个角度研究广义技术进步、资本体现式技术进步和能源技术进步对碳排放的门槛效应。研究表明：异质性技术进步均对碳排放存在显著门槛效应。当经济发展水平较高时,广义技术进步和资本技术体现式进步对碳排放有显著抑制碳作用,能源技术进步对碳排放有显著促进作用；当环境规制值较高时,广义技术进步、资本体现式技术进步和能源技术进步均对碳排放均有显著抑制作用。通过上述研究结果,为相关部门找到控制碳排放的政策着力点提供依据。

Technology progress is one of the important driving force to realize energy saving and emission reduction, low carbon environmental protection, studying the relationship between different technology and carbon emissions can give full play to the carbon emission reduction effect of technology progress. Based on the panel threshold estimation method, I analyzed the threshold effects of generalized technical, capital embodied technology and energy using technology on China’s carbon emissions from the perspectives of regional per capita income and environmental regulations, according to the 30 provincial panel data of 2005~2014years as research sample. Results show that the threshold effect of heterogeneous technological Progress on China’s carbon emission is significant. When economic development level is higher, generalized technical and capital embodied technology inhibits local carbon emissions while energy using technology increases carbon emissions. When environmental regulation strength is higher, generalized technical, capital embodied technology and energy using technology all reduce carbon emissions. Finally, the article puts forward relevant policy suggestions to control carbon sensibly according to the results.

F124.3;F062.4;F205

国家自然科学“区域复合生态经济系统耦合效应与政策调控研究以黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为例”(71371112)；国家软科学“资源型城市科技进步促进产业转型路径选择及发展对策研究”(2012GXS4D090)；山东省自然科学“山东半岛蓝色经济区环境经济复合系统仿真与预警机制研究”(ZR2012GM020)