区县作为我国经济发展的重要基本单元,其创新规律与宏观层面会存在不同。目前,我国区县政府科技投入不断增加的同时企业研发支出也不断增长,但是,现有关于两者间关系的研究结论并不统一,包括挤入效应和挤出效应两种。基于此,考虑到我国目前区县GDP的发展以及科技投入政策的滞后期较长,引入GDP增长作为调节变量,并选择2年滞后期构建动态面板数据模型进行分析。研究结果表明：(1)区县政府对科技资源大量的直接投入对当年和第二年企业研发支出的影响并不显著,反而会对第三年的企业研发支出产生挤出效应,这表明区县政府科技资源大量的补贴式投入方式可能需要改进；(2)GDP增长率的增加对企业研发支出存在正向影响,且滞后期为两年；GDP增长越快的区县政府科技投入对企业研发支出的挤出效应越弱,这表明这些区县企业研发对政府的依赖程度更小,自身的创新主体地位更强。

As an important basic unit of China's economic development, the county's innovation pattern and macro level will be different. R&D in eastern Chinese local government is increasing while the R D spending is growing. The existing research on the relationship of the two is also not uniform, including crowding in and crowding out..Based on existing research, given the current rapid development of China"s GDP, and longer lag policy status, the paper introduce GDP as the moderator, and select 2-year lag to build dynamic panel data model for analysis. The results showed that:(1)Direct government investment in science and technology resources would not improve the enterprise R D of current and second year, but it will crowd enterprise R D of third year.; (2) GDP growth have an positive impact on the enterprise R D with the lag period is two years; the crowding effect of government investment in science and technology on R D is weaker in the region with the faster GDP growth.

论文获浙江省信息化与经济社会发展研究中心资助;国家自然科学基金“新兴市场国家中跨国合作对本土企业自主创新能力的影响及对策研究”(NO.71502046 );国家自然科学基金“新兴市场国家中企业竞合关系对创新绩效的影响与对策研究”(NO.71402160);国家自然科学基金“跨国公司与本土企业创新互动过程及影响因素研究”(NO. 71273078);浙江省自然科学基金“浙江民营上市公司股权集中度对技术创新的影响研究”(NO.LQ14G020014).