战略性新兴产业技术预测机制研究

Research on the Technology Forecasting Mode of Strategic Emerging Industries

摘要:

该文对国内外的技术预测(预见)研究和实践现状及趋势进行了概括和述评,并对产业技术预测(预见)研究和实践情况进行了简要概括；根据这些论述及判断,基于多源信息融合分析、技术预测模型构建、技术预测机制建立三个递进模块,设计出战略性新兴产业技术预测机制,并对设计思路、设计框架和实现方法进行了详细阐述。

Abstract:

This paper presents and reviews the research and practice status and trends of technology forecasting (foresight) all over the world, and summaries the research and practice status of industrial technology forecasting (foresight) briefly. According to the discussions and judgments, a technology forecasting mode of strategic emerging industries is designed based on three progressive modules: multi-source information integration analysis, building technology forecasting model, and establishing technology forecasting mode. At the same time, the design ideas, design framework and implementation approach of the technology forecasting mode are described in detail.