陕西省农业科技进步贡献率测算分析——基于索罗余值法

Analysis of Shaanxi agricultural science and technology progress contribution rate calculation---based on Solow residual method

摘要:

文章在阐明农业科技进步贡献率概念与整理陕西省相关数据的基础上，利用索罗余值法对陕西农业科技进步贡献率进行测算分析。针对陕西省耕地面积变动幅度较大的特点，在比较分析常用固定弹性法与变动弹性法后，选择变动弹性法，结合SPSS18.0软件测算出近年来陕西省物质费用弹性系数为0.353，劳动力弹性系数为0.636，耕地弹性系数为0.111。同时，对陕西省农业科技进步贡献率的测算结果首次表明，陕西省的农业科技进步贡献率周期为五年，并依据先增后减的趋势预测2015年陕西农业科技进步贡献率有望达到我国农业科技进步贡献率的预测值0.556。最后，将测算结果与陕西省实况相结合，给出具体对策建议。

Abstract:

Based on the conception of agricultural science and technology progress contribution rate and the relevant data of Shaanxi province’s agricultural ,the paper analyses Shaanxi province’s contribution rate of agricultural science and technology progress by Solor’s residual method.According to the characteristic of large amplitude of agricultural cultivated land change in Shaanxi province ,the paper chooses unfixed elastic method and uses SPSS18.0,which calculates the elastic coefficient of material cost ,labor force and cultivated land recent years resulting in 0.353, 0.636 , 0.111 , comparing with fixed elastic methed.Besides.The result first explains that Shaanxi province’s contribution rate of agricultural science and technology progress period cycle is 5 years and predicts that Shaanxi province’s contribution rate of agricultural science and technology progress in 2015 probably reaches national predicted 0.556 with the tendency of climbing up and then declining.